The title run in is well and truly on - so what is Manchester City's strongest team (and is there such a thing as a "strongest team")

Image courtesy of reuters.com

We're approaching the business end of the season, and once again, Manchester City find themselves in contention for the treble.

But, it's fair to say that the Blues are probably in a worse position this year than they were at this stage 12 months ago.

In terms of points difference, they are just one point behind from this stage last season, and are much closer to leaders Arsenal and Liverpool than they were to Mikel Arteta's side this season, with a difference of seven points in City's favour.

But City's two title rivals are much stronger than they were last year, with Arsenal's attacking prowess and Liverpool's exceptional strength in depth and desire to win the league in Jurgen Klopp's final season making them highly dangerous opponents.

And up to this point in the season, City haven't quite hit the heights of last campaign, with their only wins against "big six" sides this campaign coming in both Manchester derbies.

A large reason for this has been that manager Pep Guardiola has been forced to set City up to play differently to the way they did last season as they won the treble, largely due to injuries and summer recruitment.

Despite claiming in the past that he didn't like transitions, in numerous games this season, City have lined up with an attack and midfield of players that thrive in attacking quickly, leading to open games that can go either way.

Against Chelsea this season at the Etihad Stadium, for example, Guardiola lined up with Erling Haaland, Kevin de Bruyne, Phil Foden, Julian Alvarez and Jeremy Doku in the same starting XI, leaving Rodri isolated in the middle of the park on his own.

Part of this was due to injuries. Jack Grealish was sidelined with a groin issue, and Bernardo Silva deemed not fit enough to play an entire 90 minutes (with City improving significantly after he came on.)

Had this game been played last season, we'd have likely seen Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez start, who would both help City control the game by slowing it down when necessary with short, patient passes.

But Gundogan signed for Barcelona and Mahrez for Al-Ahli, meaning City had to go for more attacking options in Alvarez and Doku instead.

Alvarez has had an excellent season so far for City, ranking inside the top three City players for both goals and assists in all competitions.

However, against Chelsea, he was instructed to sit deeper alongside Rodri, and struggled in this more defensive ball keeping role (that Gundogan thrived in last season.)

Doku, on the other hand, is a thrilling player who is fantastic in one vs one duels, but has a very long way to go in terms of improving his end product and ball retention. He is certainly not a like for like Grealish replacement, and doesn't offer as much control as Mahrez either.

But things may now be changing for City. Ahead of their upcoming game against Arsenal, it's likely that City will have a fully fit squad, with the possible exception of main goalkeeper Ederson.

This will allow Guardiola to field the personnel he wants to; "proper defenders" in defence, plenty of stabilisers in midfield and on the wings and one or two players behind Haaland playing more direct to create chances.

This can be adapted for each game, with a more conservative approach away from home and a more expansive game plan at the Etihad, where the home atmosphere will give City the edge and allow them to play more attacking football.

City's strongest XI, therefore, isn't a fixed entity. It is variable, and depends on the quality of opponent and what Guardiola decides City need most based on each specific game.

Despite this, we have decided to see if we can deduct what Guardiola's strongest side is heading into the business end of the season, and exactly what tactical and personnel changes he may make in different games.

Goalkeeper: As simple as it comes.

Scott Carson, it is safe to say, is probably out of contention, considering the fact he hasn't played a single minute in a match for City with the slightest bit of jeopardy.

Stefan Ortega-Moreno, for my money, is the best second goalkeeper in the world, and would start for every Premier League side except for City and Liverpool (and potentially Aston Villa, but that'd be a tight contest between him and Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.)

He deserves game time in the run in, and that will most likely come in the FA Cup, and potentially the odd game in the Premier League if regular Ederson needs a rest.

But it is going to take a monumental effort from Ortega to oust the Brazilian goalkeeper from his starting position.

Ederson is the best goalkeeper in the world with his feet by a comfortable distance, and has significantly improved his shot stopping ability recently.

He was man of the match in the UEFA Champions League final last year and has continued that form this season. As such it'd be somewhat a travesty of justice if Ederson doesn't start all of City's biggest games when fully fit in the end of season run in.

GK: Ederson

Defenders: With respect to Sergio Gomez and Rico Lewis, it is difficult to see either of them starting any big games for the remainder of this season, with the exception of the FA Cup semi final, in which it'd be surprising if Lewis in particular doesn't start after City's Champions League quarter final against Real Madrid a few days earlier.

This leaves six players for four places: club captain Kyle Walker, Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Ake and Josko Gvardiol.

And the most interesting part of the back four debate is that not one of those four listed above is guaranteed a starting place for City's biggest games.

The closest to being assured of a place is Stones, due to his ability to push forwards into midfield from centre back or right back to a much higher standard than any other player (in world football) allowing City to play the way they want to.

But in Stones's absence previously this campaign, City have often lined up with Walker and Gvardiol playing high and wide as wing backs with the winger tucking inside centrally, which is something City may choose to use in some games.

Walker has played a lot of football this season, and is likely to face up against Vinicius Junior once again in this season's Champions League quarter final against Los Blancos.

But Guardiola has shown he's not afraid to drop him for big games before, as evidenced by the way he started him on the bench in the Champions League final against Inter last year, which is a real possibility for any game in which City don't face Vinicius Junior or Kylian Mbappe.

Ake will probably start at left back, but faces tough competition from Akanji and particularly Gvardiol. This time next year, that battle for places in the big games may be more tightly contested than it is now as Gvardiol continues to grow in a City shirt.

That leaves two spaces for three players: Akanji, Walker and Dias. If we assume Walker is nailed on at right back for against Real Madrid to deal with Vinicius, that leaves space for just one of Dias or Akanji.

Between the two, I would opt for Dias, simply because of his in game leadership and individual defending quality in making blocks and last man tackles.

But for all big games other than against Real Madrid (and perhaps PSG) I believe Akanji should be slightly ahead of Walker in the pecking order.

Defence: Akanji, Stones, Dias, Ake.

Midfielders:

The most ever changing and injury hit part of City's team this season, competition for places is very high in midfield, and will likely be even higher next season if City sign Lucas Paqueta from West Ham United or an alternative.

One player who doesn't have to sweat over a place in the team is Rodri. The Spaniard is City's most important player by a comfortable distance, and is nailed on as a starter in the deep lying midfield role.

This leaves two places ahead of Rodri. Lewis and Matheus Nunes are both likely to start in midfield against Chelsea in the FA Cup, but are unlikely to start any other big matches.

This leaves a wide range of options, including Foden, De Bruyne, Alvarez, Bernardo and Kovacic.

The former three can be categorised as more attacking options, whilst the latter two can be considered more conservative. It's highly likely, therefore, that Guardiola would choose a pairing of one of the first trio and one of the second duo.

Bernardo and Foden are probably guaranteed a place to start in every big game, due to their performances this season and overall consistency when it comes to performing in big games, as well as their versatility and comfort in City's system.

However, it's highly unlikely they'll start centrally together, due to a lack of other options on the right wing. Therefore, we'll likely see one play centrally and one play on the right flank.

The other midfield spot is a reasonably tight contest between Kovacic and De Bruyne, which is something that can't have been anticipated at the start of the season.

Whilst it'd perhaps be too far to say Kovacic has stood out since he signed for City, he's barely put a foot wrong this season, and provides a level of control in midfield that no-one else in City's squad can provide.

But De Bruyne is De Bruyne, and can provide one moment of magic, whether it be a pinpoint cross, a perfectly weighted through ball or a fierce strike from the edge of the area to shift the game in City's favour.

However, when he's having an off day and these high risk, high reward moments don't pay off - like against Liverpool at Anfield - he unbalances the team and often appears a liability when playing this way.

But his sheer quality means he should be an automatic starter for the vast majority of big matches at the Etihad Stadium, where away teams tend to play a bit more conservatively, meaning misplaced passes are punished less often.

For away games however - most notably at the Bernabeu and the at either the Emirates Stadium or the Allianz Arena if City emerge from the quarter final victorious - Kovacic's name should be in the hat to start, as a controlled and uneventful away leg gives City the best chance of winning the tie overall.

Midfield: Rodri, De Bruyne, Bernardo.

Attack: With Foden not starting in midfield so as to maintain balance centrally, this leaves a space for him in the front three, and most likely on the right wing.

Alvarez has had an excellent season, but he's not going to start over Haaland in the centre forward role and struggled out on the left against Liverpool, meaning he's going to have to settle for a role as super sub.

This leaves one final space in the lineup - on the left wing. As many options as there are to play in this role, there is only one man for the job, and it's "Mr Control:" Grealish.

City have felt his absence in big games this season, with their opponents granted more control of the game than if Grealish was starting.

The Englishman performed in big games last season against Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, and impressed in City's 3-0 victory at Old Trafford back in October.

Foden, Haaland and Grealish as a front three is perfectly balanced, and contains plenty of quality. Grealish can play more conservatively for the benefit of the team whilst allowing Foden and Haaland to produce output with goals and assists, as they have all season.

Attack: Foden, Haaland, Grealish.

Recap

Starting XI with fully fit squad: Ederson; Akani, Stones, Dias, Ake; Rodri, De Bruyne, Bernardo; Foden, Haaland, Grealish

Bench: Ortega-Moreno, Lewis, Walker, Gvardiol, Kovacic, Nunes, Bobb, Doku, Alvarez

Starting XI for Madrid away (and potentially Arsenal/Bayern away in SF): Ederson; Walker, Stones, Dias, Ake; Rodri, Foden, Kovacic; Bernardo, Haaland, Grealish

Bench: Ortega-Moreno, Carson, Lewis, Akanji, Gvardiol, Gomez, Nunes, De Bruyne, Bobb, Doku, Hamilton, Alvarez.