How will Josko Gvardiol fit in at Manchester City?

Manchester City's signing of generational talent Josko Gvardiol is a statement of intent, one that would suggest that they're not going to lie down after winning the Treble.

City finally announced the signing of the 21 year old on August 5th for a fee of €90 million, with no add ons, after a long and drawn out transfer saga. He has taken the number 24 shirt, last worn by John Stones in his first season, before he switched to number 5 after the departure of Pablo Zabaleta.

This means Guardiola now has six specialist senior centre backs at his disposal, with Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake, Aymeric Laporte and John Stones, as well as new signing Gvardiol, all options good enough to start for the vast majority of teams in world football.

But how will they all fit in City's squad?

The simple answer is... they won't. One of the 6 needs to leave the club, unless they're satisfied acting as emergency backup, with Laporte being by the far the most likely to depart this summer.

Swapping Laporte and Gvardiol would be a good move for City; bringing in a young, promising, and already first team standard flexible defender, for a less versatile, older defender in Laporte, who is rumoured to want to leave the club anyway for more game time.

And then there is also confusion about what might happen on City's right hand side, with speculation surrounding the future of Kyle Walker. Bayern Munich defender, Benjamin Pavard, is a potential replacement City are lining up, which also needs to be added to consideration.

So, now that the signing of Gvardiol is done and in writing, there are many interesting ways in which City can line their defence up next season.

The 2 Silvas Blog analyses potential starting defences for City next season, and the role new signing Josko Gvardiol will play:

Option 1 - Gvardiol instead of Ake.

Back 4: Walker/Akanji-Stones-Dias-Gvardiol

No matter how well Ake played last season, no player has their place guaranteed in a Pep Guardiola starting 11, due to the competitive notion of the squad. As such, we could see the impressive 28 year old replaced in the starting 11 by Gvardiol.

Gvardiol is like a cross between Stones, Dias and Ake, in terms of his playing style. He is capable of playing as the last man, like Dias, and making diving blocks and tackles., but is as comfortable on the ball as a midfielder, just like our own John Stones.

He is also athletic and agile like Ake, which makes him an excellent candidate for playing at full back.

Whether this be by coincidence or not, City have, in recent seasons, only operated with 1 left footed defender in their strongest back 4, which is somewhat surprising, given the plethora of left footed defensive talent they've had in recent years.

During their run to their first Champions League final, back in 2021, it was a back 4 of Walker, Stones, Dias and Oleksandr Zinchenko, now of Arsenal, that was commonly used, with Zinchenko being the sole left footed option.

In 2017, when City went on a remarkable winning run, it was Walker, Stones, Nicolas Otamendi and Fabian Delph as his backline, with left back Delph being the only left footed player.

And, on the run to the treble, It was Stones, Dias, Ake and one of Walker or Akanji, to make Ake the only left footed player.

It doesn't just have to be the left back as the left footed option; Guardiola liked to play a back 4 of Walker, Dias, Laporte and Joao Cancelo in the second half of 2021, with Laporte being the left footed option from centre back.

This means it's unlikely we'll see Ake and Gvardiol play together regularly, but who knows with Guardiola? The Catalan loves a surprise, and I'm sure right now he'll be looking for a way to fit two of his best defenders in together.

Which leads us to...

Option 2 - Gvardiol AND Ake.

Back 4: Stones-Dias-Gvardiol-Ake

I believe there is a way this can work, and we have seen it before. However, it would require Bernardo Silva playing on the right wing, and possibly Phil Foden in centre midfield as well.

City have shown hints of this system before; and recently too, in their 1-0 UEFA Champions League Final victory over Inter Milan.

Image courtesy of mancity.com

As shown in the image above, City are almost forming a back 4 in possession with right winger Bernardo Silva dropping incredibly deep, and Nathan Ake pushing forward a tad. Interestingly, John Stones, the right back, is not even in shot at this point, as he is high and narrow up the pitch.

Dias and Akanji are playing in much more of a partnership here, rather than in a 3 with Ake, which we could see the Portuguese replicate with Gvardiol. We could also see Gvardiol operate in Ake's space, with Ake playing inside, as a result of the versatility of both players.

The reason I say Bernardo Silva needs to play on the right is because, for this system to work, we need a right winger who is defensively capable, and is able to fill in in defence in case of a turnover in the defensive third.

An, they need to be able to attack too, because, depending on how deep the opposition team set their press, City would often shift to a 3-4-3 diamond system, with Bernardo playing higher.

Currently, Bernardo is a superior option to Foden in this system, and it is likely that Olise would be too, if City signed him, due to his more measured nature. But, there's a role in midfield for City's star boy.

With Rodri, Stones and Jack Grealish doing their bit to help City control the game, for games against weaker opposition, this gives room in the team for 3 more "chaotic" players to outwardly try to score and create goals.

Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne are guaranteed picks in two of these roles, with the other one very much up for grabs, with Foden and Julian Alvarez the main candidates for this role.

Using this system means Guardiola could go for an approach of keeping it tidy and simple in deep and wide areas, before choosing the right area to slip the ball into the "number 10" attacking spaces, and going slightly more direct from there to create a chance for Haaland.

This could also provide a future for Laporte, as he'd be able to start in this system, perhaps as back up for Gvardiol. City could operate the defence somewhat like this;

Right back - Stones, Lewis, Walker

Right centre back - Dias, Akanji, Stones

Left centre back - Gvardiol, Laporte, Ake

Left back - Gvardiol, Ake, Akanji.

Playing Walker at right back, coming into centre back, with Stones pushing forward and Bernardo dropping back, sounds complicated, but it could work, particularly if City were to come up against a team with a fast striker.

Spreading it out like this would mean that City could give a fair amount of playing time to Akanji, Laporte and Ake, although, with Guardiola preferring to operate with a small squad, I still feel that the departure of City's 29 year old Spanish defender remains very likely to happen.

Gvardiol is a world class centre back, and Ake is one of my favourite City players, so, logically, I'd love for Guardiola to find a way to play them together. But, if it doesn't work out, for whatever reason, I would not at all be adverse to a return to a more familiar system.

Option 3 - Ake instead of Gvardiol

Back 4: Walker/Akanji-Stones-Dias-Ake

"If it ain't broke, then don't fix it" is a phrase that usually can not be applied to football. Teams need to be prepared to adapt and shake up in the transfer window, so they don't find themselves in a "broken" state.

However, if you've won a treble with a solid and settled defence, then why on earth would you change it?

Nathan Ake was on the three man shortlist for the Etihad Player of the Seasons last year, along with Haaland and De Bruyne, and ahead of Rodri, John Stones, Ruben Dias, Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva, all players who get more of the limelight.

It is quite a feat for Ake, a man who was a firm back up in his first 2 seasons at City, to force his way onto the same table as Haaland and De Bruyne as one of the club's best performing players.

Many City fans were sceptical of the £40 million price tag City paid to Bournemouth for the Dutchman in 2020, particularly considering it was in the middle of the COVID pandemic. But, I always felt that Ake had the versatility, attitude and quality to be a successful signing for City.

It seems mad that Ake nearly moved to Chelsea last summer, joining former City teammate Raheem Sterling in West London. Thankfully, this appeared to be the one time last summer that Chelsea refused to meet a club's asking price, finding City's valuation of £50 million for the 28 year old too high.

As to how much it would take for a club to prise him off City's hands now, well, it'd be not far off double their valuation last summer. Ake has just signed a bumper new contract at City, extending his stay by 2 years until 2027. Quite frankly, he's going nowhere.

So, in this case, Gvardiol will have a fight on his hands to nail down Ake's left back spot. The grit, determination and general solidness of Ake makes him, in my opinion, one of the best defensive full backs in the world.

Dangerous wingers such as Mohamed Salah, Bukayo Saka, Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sane have all had their threat nullified by Ake in the past. Plus, we're seeing his attacking threat improve too, as shown by his excellent winner in the fourth round of the FA Cup against Arsenal.

Gvardiol is 21, and has plenty of years to eventually replace Ake in the City side, who is 7 years the Croatian's senior. I would love to see Gvardiol and Ake play together, but, if Guardiola decides that there is only room for one of them in his side, then it's Ake's spot until he loses it.

Option 4 - Gvardiol in the Stones Role.

Back 4: Walker/Akanji-Dias-Gvardiol-Ake

The midfield/hybrid role is arguably the most important in the current City team. It helps the Blues to dominate midfield, and get more players up the pitch. When Guardiola started using it consistently, at the end of February and in the middle of March, we saw the Blues begin the form that saw them win the Treble.

There are very few players in the City side that are trusted to slot in next to Rodri at the base of midfield from a defensive position. Rico Lewis has done it before with success, with Joao Cancelo, Bernardo Silva and Manuel Akanji attempting the role with valour.

The most successful player in this role was John Stones, who thrived in midfield by catching teams by surprise with his outstanding technical ability. But, City's number 5 cannot be relied upon in the long term, as he's had numerous hamstring injuries in his career, and is not getting any younger at the age of 29.

Gvardiol is also an excellent player technically, and I could easily see him converted by Guardiola into this role.

At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar - where Gvardiol's stunning tournament was overshadowed by one moment where Lionel Messi turned him inside out to create a goal for Julian Alvarez - the only central defender to cover more combined metres with upfield passes was Rodri, with both players covering over 3 kilometres over the tournament.

And, of every play in the Bundesliga last season that completed more than 15 dribbles, no play came close to Gvardiol's dribble completion rate, with a staggering 88.9% of his attempted dribbles successfully completed.

I believe Gvardiol could slot into the City system like a duck to water, and will not need a year to adapt, like plenty of others have. Therefore, he should be mentored by Stones in how to properly play the role, and I believe he could eventually be Stones's long term successor in that role.

If a few online rumours are true that Stones is a doubt for the start of the season, then we could well see Gvardiol thrown in straight at the deep end. This would be the perfect litmus test to check where he is in terms of progress, and whether he can fit into a back 4 with Nathan Ake.

Conclusion

The signing of Gvardiol is significant, to sign the best young forward and best young defender in the world in two consecutive seasons is a statement of intent from City, as it shows the 115 Premier League charges aren't hindering their planning for the future.

City have grabbed the attention of world football with this transfer; at the age of 21, Gvardiol could be a key player for the next 10 seasons or longer.

There is always the chance that he goes down the route of Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva or Rodri, where he takes a season (or two) to adapt to new surroundings. Eventually, however, all of those players have settled in, and I'm confident we'll see the same with Gvardiol.

Or, in an even better scenario, we could see Gvardiol fit straight into City's well oiled machine, in the same way Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias and Erling Haaland have done.

Whatever happens, the signing of a world class talent shows the world that City, the domestic and European champions, are not to be messed with, which will rightly cause ripples of excitement on the Blue side of Manchester.