"Don't overthink, Pep." A message from every City fan.

Image courtesy of bitterandblue.sbnation.com

City should be going into their UEFA Champions League quarter final tie feeling confident.

After Arsenal's 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday, the title is now in City's hands. They face a favourable draw with championship side Sheffield United in the FA Cup semi finals, and key players such as Erling Haaland, Ruben Dias, Jack Grealish, Kevin de Bruyne and Rodri are all in superb form. As well as this, players such as Nathan Ake, John Stones and Manuel Akanji are also red hot at the moment, which should mean the Blues fear no-one when it comes to their Champions League run.

But when it comes to Pep Guardiola, things are different.

Guardiola has always been paranoid as a football manager, and prioritises control of possession over anything else. Especially as City have lost another player in their build-up since the arrival of Haaland, Guardiola has found new ways of keeping control of matches.

Recently, the winning formula seems to be a back 4 where one of the fullbacks drops into midfield alongside Rodri, whilst the other 3 defenders form a back 3. Recently, John Stones has made the midfield/fullback hybrid position his own, with excellent performances against RB Leipzig and Liverpool in particular.

But there is no guaranteeing Pep Guardiola will stick with that same back 4, or stick with Stones at right back, or stick with a full back dropping into midfield, or stick with a back 4 at all.

Because when it comes to the Champions League, Guardiola has a tendency for overthinking things in the biggest moments.

It could be argued that in all seasons (except last season, where City's exit was nothing more than a freak two minutes, and the first season of his tenure, where City weren't expected to challenge for the Champions League) that City's departure has come down, at least partially, to a mistake in Guardiola's tactics, often when he's trying something he's never tried before.

In the 2017/18 season, when City faced Liverpool in the Champions League quarter finals, he chose to play De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan in an interchanging right wing/ central midfield role, which didn't at all work, as it left City without an outlet on the right wing, whilst Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva were on the bench.

This wasn't a bad idea: he'd have loved to be able to play Fernandinho, Gundogan, De Bruyne and David Silva all in the same side, for control purposes. But it was untested and untried, and in the end, it meant Liverpool left back Andy Robertson could bomb forwards, as he realised he didn't have the concern of a winger behind him.

In the second leg, he started David Silva, Bernardo Silva, Raheem Sterling, Kevin de Bruyne, Leroy Sane AND Gabriel Jesus, in a line up that was ultimately too attacking. City lost the second leg 2-1, and 5-1 on aggregate.

The season after that, when City came up against English opposition again in Tottenham Hotspur, Guardiola had left back Fabian Delph inverting. This, in itself wasn't unfamiliar to City in the slightest. What was unfamiliar however, was Gundogan filling in for him at left back. He was a big miss in the centre of the park for City, and ultimately, bad luck and poor defending of counter attacks meant City lost the tie on away goals.

The season after was very much disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, and City faced an unusual one legged tie at a neutral venue in Portugal. Playing against French side Lyon, Guardiola played a back 5, of Walker, Garcia, Fernandinho, Laporte and Cancelo, which failed miserably, as it didn't prevent the counter attacks City were trying to prevent, and really took away from City's attacking play. City lost 3-1, and went out very much with a whimper.

Guardiola left possibly his most ridiculous Champions League tactical decision for the 2020/21 season, the only Champions League final in the club's history. He opted not to play a defensive midfielder, instead playing Gundogan in the holding role, with Foden and Bernardo ahead of him. Raheem Sterling, who had played very poorly since Christmas of that season, and didn't start either of the legs in the quarter finals or the semi finals, started on the left wing, with Mahrez on the right wing, leaving De Bruyne isolated as the solitary false 9.

Guardiola did it all in the name of - you guessed it - control. That word must be exhausting to some City fans; those who want City to play a much more expansive, front foot style of football, using the directness of players like Haaland, De Bruyne, Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez. But, barring extremely remarkable circumstances, Guardiola would never do that.

It'd seem that Guardiola would go to any lengths, especially. in the Champions League, to prioritise City's control over the game, but it'd seem Guardiola sometimes forgets just how capable his players are.

We have a striker doing things never done before in Premier League history, with his outrageous goal scoring records in Haaland. We have a world cup winner in Alvarez. We have two former PFA Player of the Year Award winners in Mahrez and De Bruyne. We have excellent local talent in Foden and Rico Lewis. We have a £100 million player in Grealish. And the rest of them aren't bad either.

So Guardiola just needs to trust the individual players more. Man to man, City are a better football team than Bayern Munich. They have better footballers in a technical sense. That's not saying anything negative at all about Bayern; they're an excellent team with some quality players in defence, midfield and attack. But the overthinking of Guardiola when it comes to playing against quality players in big matches is a real weakness of his, and one that has undeniably weakened City's claims for their coverted first Champions League.

Guardiola is, without a shadow of a doubt, the greatest manager in this club's history. To take us to the next level in Europe, however, he needs to remember just how talented the squad that has been assembled to give him, and the club, so much domestic success.