Arsenal? Liverpool? United? Brighton? Analysing the teams that can stop City in the 2023/24 season.
- William Russell
- Aug 8, 2023
- 12 min read
Winning the Premier League has become something of a habit for Manchester City.
After sealing their third Premier League title in a row back in May, as a part of an historic treble, and making it their 5th league title in 6 seasons, Pep Guardiola's side drew criticism from fans of other clubs for making the league uncompetitive every year, like in the German Bundesliga or the French Ligue 1.
But, unlike with Paris Saint Germain and Bayern Munich, it takes a season of near perfection from City to win so consistently.
If City have a poor season, like Bayern did this year, then the level of competition from the rest of the Premier League means there is no way they would be able to win the league. Instead, they'd find themselves in a difficult fight for a place in the Champions League.
City's average of 2.34 points per game last season saw them higher up than Bayern Munich, who sat at an average of 2.08 points per game last season. That total would put them on approximately 79 points in a 38 game season, which would see them finish in 3rd place in the Premier League, behind City and Arsenal.
In none of the rest of Europe's top 5 leagues would Bayern have emerged with the title with their average points per game,(2.08) compared to other teams, with the Italian and Spanish top divisions containing a higher standard of teams than in Germany.
The Premier League is the most competitive league of all, and Manchester City's sheer brilliance every year is the reason they win the league, not because of weakness elsewhere in the league, like the Bundesliga.
In 3 of City's 5 league titles, they have been pushed for the title up until the end of the season, coming from Liverpool twice and Arsenal in the most recent season. In the 2018/19, 2020/21 and 2022/23 seasons, City found themselves a considerable distance off the top spot, but an excellent winning run of games saw them claim top spot and keep it, holding off their rivals in the process.
The earliest time this happened, in 2019, we saw City finish with a remarkable total of 98 points, just one ahead of runners up Liverpool. Both sides deserved to win the title, and City got the rub of the green.
Liverpool will likely be back and competing at a high standard next season, with taking the Premier League crown off City their main goal. It wouldn't be surprising to see improvements from Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United too, who could all aim for the same achievement come the end of the season.
Arsenal, of course, will need to be added to the title mix, as they will be a wounded animal from their collapse at the back end of last season. And no-one can count out Aston Villa or Brighton, who both over-achieved last season, and have strengthened in the summer.
Here is analysis on, in my opinion, the 4 most likely teams that can hope to take the title off City next season:
Arsenal
Under the management of Guardiola's former assistant, Mikel Arteta, Arsenal essentially play the same system as City, with a few minor tweaks. The biggest difference comes with the wingers.
Arsenal's wingers, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka, are of a different profile to Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva at City. The Arsenal duo are more direct, and are much quicker, which means we see them take on a defender much more often than either Grealish or Bernardo.
Arteta has explained what he wants his wingers to do, and how the different angles of passing makes it easier for wingers to create.
"I don't like creating lines between the wide players." Arteta said. "Why? Because the full back passes to the wide player like this...
In this image, there is little Saka can do. He is facing pressure from the defender behind him (Bernardo) which means he can't take the ball on the turn. There's space inside, but, eventually, he'll run into traffic.
He ended up taking the ball and winning a foul, which is probably the best thing he could've done in that situation.
"He can't progress a play, there's always someone at his bum. He cannot play forward," Arteta went on to explain. This is perfectly fine for Guardiola, he prefers a more patient approach from his wingers, drawing players in to slow the game down when necessary and to and win fouls.
But, in Arteta's system, this is the last thing he wants.
"When you do it like this..."
"The angles you create are always receiving the ball like this."
White has carried the ball out wide, dragging a player with him, before passing the ball inside to Saka, who was making a horizontal run inside from the touchline.
The ball will now naturally arrive on Saka's preferred left foot, and, by letting the ball run across his body, he will be facing forwards and able to drive into space.
This is the main area that Guardiola and Arteta differ. It can create a goal scoring opportunity if Saka makes the right decision, and with a fast, direct player like the England international, that happens often enough to make it worthwhile.
But, with a player of a different profile, such as Bernardo Silva, it would be more beneficial for the team if he were to draw a foul or pass it inside to a midfielder, to move the opposition and make a chance to create for Erling Haaland.
Arteta prefers the first approach, and uses typical wingers, such as Saka and Gabriel Martinelli as his wide players. Guardiola prefers the second approach, and uses midfielders, such as Jack Grealish and Bernardo in wide positions instead.
If Arsenal want to beat City next season, they'll have to make City uncomfortable, by breaking quickly and putting them under pressure in a high intensity game.
They'll need to utilise these full back to winger passes often, particularly with Saka, as it'll keep him away from a 1 vs 1 duel with Nathan Ake, which the Dutchman has often triumphed in.
They are slightly unbalanced in the midfield area, however, with a trio of Martin Odegaard and new signings Kai Havertz and Declan Rice seeming too attacking minded to me.
Also, Arsenal have shown that they can crumble under pressure, as they completely collapsed at the back end of last season, giving City the chance to waltz to the title with 3 games to spare.
But, they've been there and experienced that before, and as their cohort of young talent gets older and more experienced, Arsenal will be a team to look out for when they attempt to knock City off their perch by winning the Premier League title in May next season.
Liverpool
After an off season last year, the Reds have strengthened over the summer, with the signings of midfielders Alexis MacAllister and Dominik Szoboszlai. With Trent Alexander-Arnold's transition from a full back, to an inverted full back proving successful, it'd appear his next move is to the base of midfield, where he's been playing in pre-season.
This is a strong midfield foundation for Jurgen Klopp's side, which has always been their weakness during his time at the club, even when they were at the height of their powers. If they gel properly, they'll cause City real issues.
Liverpool's major issue last season was lacking a spine in midfield, one that could help them maintain the ball, and win it back when they lost it. Klopp tried to fix that issue by operating with a midfield diamond, which, as shown in the picture below, consists of Fabinho, Thiago, Jordan Henderson and Cody Gakpo.
With Brighton applying pressure in a 4-2-4 formation, it essentially leaves Liverpool with a 4 vs 2 overload in midfield, one that they should exploit.
But, their midfield players lack the Ilkay Gundogan-esque intelligence to position themself on the left hand side (highlighted by the black rectangle) where they can pick up space and move into an attacking transition.
Matip's pass is weak, and Fabinho loses out to Evan Ferguson. MacAllister picks up the pieces and now has 3 options ahead of him. Liverpool have just 5 players back and in position to defend.
Henderson and Thiago are both out of position, meaning MacAllister has plenty of time to get his head up and pick the right pass. A more compact midfield, however, with players positioned correctly, would have either dispossessed the 24 year old, or made him play a safer pass.
Instead of dropping off to prevent the threat of runners, Liverpool maintained a position high up the pitch, to limit MacAllister's options.
The Argentinian picks out Adam Lallana, who takes the ball on the turn. The former Liverpool midfielder is now able to slide in Solly March, who has got himself on the shoulder of the defence.
Liverpool now try to drop off, but that just gives Lallana the time needed to pick the pass, indicated by the line. The English winger ran through on goal, and was brought down by goalkeeper Alisson. Fortunately for them, March was inches offside, meaning the penalty was ruled out. This wasn't enough, however, to prevent the Reds from a crushing 3-0 defeat.
Having the tenacious, aggressive and highly technical Alexander-Arnold at the base of midfield will help Liverpool in both aspects, keeping the ball and winning it back. It might take him a while to master that role, but he'd be perfectly suited for it.
MacAllister can help with the defensive side of things too, whilst also thriving in the left half space. Paired with Szobozlai, they offer a blend of "control" and "chaos," something that is required in a top class midfield, and something Arsenal may well be lacking.
Attacking threat has never been an issue for Liverpool, with Mohamed Salah remaining one of the best players in the world. Gakpo has started his career in Merseyside well, with Darwin Nunez likely to improve in his second season. Diogo Jota provides excellent back up, whilst Luis Diaz will also be back competing for places, as injury kept him out for most of last season.
Liverpool also have the advantage of having "been there and done that, "which puts them above Manchester United, Arsenal and every other competitor facing City.
But, ultimately, in the past, City have always shown that they were the superior side to Jurgen Klopp's men. They pipped them to the title in 2018/19 and 2021/22, finishing just a solitary point ahead. Both times, Liverpool just lacked the quality required to edge out games on occasion, and they were very unfortunate to go up against such a tough Manchester City side.
I personally feel that, other than City, Liverpool are the most likely team to win the title next season, and that, if their new signings bed in well, they will certainly win a league or Champions League in the next few seasons.
Whilst Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola remain at their respective clubs, we will see Liverpool and City battling for the top titles, without a shadow of a doubt.
Manchester United
Manchester United, a team that are what a lot of our own negative fans describe City as: a team that are saved by their manager from poor business from their board.
Despite some recent good business, United are still a shambles behind the scene, under the ownership of the unpopular Glazer Family.
They were reportedly set a budget of £100 million for this transfer window, which, with the fees collected from outgoings needing to be taken into consideration, is plenty of money to improve their squad.
Before they sold any players, United went and blew approximately £55 million of that fee on Mason Mount, a player who they didn't need, and one who could now make their midfield look unbalanced, in the same sense as Arsenal's.
They've also announced the signing of striker Rasmus Hojlund from Atalanta, for a fee of €70 million plus add ons. All of this is for a player who scored the same number of league goals last season as Bryan Mbeumo, James Ward-Prowse and Pascal Gross.
Considering City got Haaland and Alvarez for a total of approximately the same price, then I know where I'd prefer to spend my €70 million.
They have had some decent business, in the shape of Casemiro and Lisandro Martinez, but there is no guaranteeing a player will turnout good in a United shirt.
Ten Hag likes his teams to play attacking football, with an emphasis on possession, an idea Guardiola has made popular with numerous managers in world football.
Except, with every manager there is a slight difference that makes them unique. For United, they like to play a bit more direct whenever they can, utilising the pace of Marcus Rashford in behind.
Having a dangerous, direct forward such as Rashford in your team adds a different option, and makes you useful against City, as no team in world football can dominate possession against the Blues.
Rashford has scored numerous goals against City before in his career, as he is such a dangerous player in transitions. Now, with another creative midfielder in Mount joining the side, it will only help Rashford thrive.
When United are good, they're very good. They function like a good team, and can match any side in the world. Their only issue is when they're bad, they're very, very, very bad.
The Red Devils lost by an aggregate score of 13-3 in just 2 games last season - the two away fixtures against their biggest rivals, City and Liverpool. Add a 4-0 away defeat to Brentford, a 3-1 defeat to Aston Villa, and a 3-0 Europa League loss to Sevilla, and that just shows the difference between United and an elite team.
Because when a City, or a Real Madrid, or a Bayern Munich don't perform well, they make sure that they find a way to win. The Blues were actually quite poor in the Champions League final, and it took an excellent goal from Rodri, combined with Ederson's heroic efforts in goal, to edge over the line in Istanbul.
For United, it seems that all it takes sometimes is for one of their key players to have an off day, for them to completely detonate.
But, their activity in the transfer window has undeniably helped them. The signing of Hojlund will somewhat take the goalscoring burden off Rashford, and add extra goals, to a side that scored just 7 more league goals last season than relegated Leicester City.
The signing of Mount solves one issue, but creates another, in Manchester United's midfield. It'll take the burden off Fernandes as the sole creator, but it'll add to the burden of Casemiro as the sole enforcer.
So, United's best chance of getting anything against City is by playing a more defensive player alongside Casemiro and sitting deep, as it has been pretty much since Guardiola took over from Manuel Pellegrini.
They have a good record against City, but have always struggled gathering the consistency needed to launch a title bid.
Even after their summer signings, I fail to see how United have the resources to launch a title bid (and I hope that doesn't come back to haunt me!)
Newcastle United
After a season of surpassing everyone's expectations, Newcastle find themselves in the same position again.
Many fans are choosing to write off the Magpies, predicting them to finish behind the Big 6, plus Aston Villa and Brighton, in table predictions.
But I am a big fan of Eddie Howe and his system, and I believe the signing of Sandro Tonali will help escalate Newcastle to new levels, as they compete in the Champions League.
I'd expect Tonali to slot in next to Bruno Guimaraes at the base of Newcastle's midfield, in a slight change of system from last year.
Newcastle liked to play with an aggressive, high tempo 4-3-3 system last year. They had a solid back 4, an aggressive, high energy midfield 3, and a direct, dynamic front 3, and made St James's Park a tough place to travel for every team.
But, this season, Newcastle are in the Champions League, and will have at least another 8 fixtures to contend with. Therefore, they may need to play at a lower tempo, to preserve energy on the pitch, whilst remaining one of the best sides in Europe.
A double pivot of Guimaraes and Tonali is perfect for controlling the game - both of those players are excellent at keeping the ball and winning it back. With a more advanced midfielder ahead of them, perhaps Joelinton, with the 2 wingers and a striker, then Newcastle will still offer plenty going forward.
This strategy will particularly be useful when playing away to a big side, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, or even City, for example. It will help them suffocate the play in midfield, and prevent their opposition from creating, and will keep them dangerous on the break with 4 players designated to attacking.
Newcastle can build up from the back in a 4-2-4 formation, like City did against Arsenal in their 4-1 victory over the Gunners last season. They could even play Wilson and Isak together in this system, with the Swede holding the creative ability to make this work.
In their home games, they can easily push one of Tonali or Guimaraes up, and revert to a more positive 4-3-3 system. And, of course, there may not even be the need to take some of the intensity out of their game.
Whilst City prefer to play more cautiously, and operate with a smaller squad, Newcastle are much more similar to Liverpool, and play fast and aggressively, but with a larger squad to choose from.
The Magpies have a plethora of options to choose from in the wide positions, with Aleksander Isak, Anthony Gordon, Miguel Almiron, Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy all reliable options Eddie Howe can rely upon. As backups, Matt Ritchie and Ryan Fraser are capable out wide.
They're all of the same profile; players who love to take on a man, and beat them with plenty of pace. Some of them are more creative minded, like Gordon, Fraser and Murphy, whilst others, such as Isak and Barnes look to finish themselves.
Many are counting Newcastle out, but there's no way I'll be foolish enough to do that. Howe is an excellent manager, and whilst there remain weaknesses in the squad, perhaps with depth at centre back and left back, I believe we'll see him take his personal philosophy, and adapt it to work in Europe and take Newcastle to new heights.
Winning the league? It'll be a tough challenge, without a doubt, but, with backing from their rich owners, nothing is impossible, and I doubt it'll be long before we see them lift a trophy.
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